Scientists Caught Inflating Antarctic Ice Losses 3,000% More Than Real-World Observations


A new study utilizing satellite observations determined that Antarctic-wide ice shelves gained 661 Gt of mass from 2009 to 2019.

An approach relying on assumptions of an unrealistic “steady state” or fixed calving flux (instead of real-world time-variable observations) estimates a net Antarctic ice shelf loss of -20,028 Gt over this same 11-year period – a more than 30-fold distortion of observed ice loss. [emphasis, links added]

New research (Andreasen et al., 2023) uses observational evidence from MODIS to assess net ice losses and gains for 34 ice shelves across Antarctica from 2009-2019.

These observed data show the mass gains from East Antarctica and the Ross and Ronne-Filchner ice shelves were larger on net than the mass losses in West Antarctica and the Peninsula.

Consequently, Antarctica as a whole has been gaining mass since 2009.

“Overall, the Antarctic ice shelf area has grown by 5,305 km² since 2009, with 18 ice shelves retreating and 16 larger shelves growing in area.”

Most studies utilize an alarmism-friendly “steady-state assumption” approach to estimate ice losses “in the absence of observations.”

This allows the agenda-driven facilitators of ice-loss estimates to “overestimate ice loss on ice shelves that are advancing.

For example, using the “steady-state assumption” method, a net loss of -20,028 Gt could be alleged for Antarctic ice shelves from 2009-2019.

Satellite observations, in contrast, assess a +661 Gt mass gain during this same period.

Thus, assumption-based ice losses are artificially inflated over 3,000% more than observations, flagrantly misrepresenting ice shelf behavior across Antarctica.

The practice of distorting the numbers to drive a narrative has infiltrated another aspect of climate science.

Image Source: Andreasen et al., 2023

Top photo of Ross Sea, Antarctica, by Una Miller on Unsplash.

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